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| Brian_The_Snail
Posts: 1,166 Status: Duke Karma: +166 [+1] [-1]   |
Subject: Odds ... | |||||
| 1. The simple odds of winning are as follows: ================================ Matching 3 numbers - 1 in 56.7 Matching 4 numbers - 1 in 1032.4 Matching 5 numbers - 1 in 55491.33 Matching 6 numbers - 1 in 13,983,816 As a measure of your chances, the odds of matching 6 numbers are roughly the same as me picking a random letter in the bible and you picking the same one - that puts it into perspective! Overall, the odds of winning any prize are 1 in in 53.7! That's why many people refer to playing lotteries of this type as "paying the idiot tax". 2. The weighted odds of winning are as follows: ================================== [Note: weighted odds take into account the cost per ticket and the value of prizes. Weighted odds assume the following exchange rates: - 1 Helix = 500K gold - 1 Sapphire = 3.5mill gold - 1 Element = 14mill gold ] The following odds give the expected return per 1 gold invested on each of the draws: - Hourly Gold Rush (Level 1): 0.263 - Weekly Mega Draw (Level 2): 0.504 - Daily Sapphire Draw (Level 3): 0.335 - Mega Lucky Helix Pot (Level 4): 1.266 - Element Madness Special Edition (Level 5): 0.705 In other words ... level 1 is a really poor bet, but level 4 will (on average) deliver an increased ROI! 3. Disclaimer ========= N.B. This analysis is based upon the CURRENT cost per ticket and VALUE of prizes in each draw category. If these change, then the expected return will change as well. In addition, if the assumed exchange rates for Helix, Sapphires and Elements change, then so will the expected return. Level 1 - Cost per ticket = 1,000 gold. Prizes are 10,000 gold, 80,000 gold, 475,000 gold and 10,500,000 gold (for 3, 4, 5 and 6 matches respectively). Level 2 - Cost per ticket = 100,000 gold. Prizes are 1,000,000 gold, 30,000,000 gold, 200,000,000 gold and 2,000,000,000 gold (for 3, 4, 5 and 6 matches respectively). Level 3 - Cost per ticket = 1 sapphire. Prizes are 10 sapphires, 150 sapphires, 750 sapphires and 2,500 sapphires (for 3, 4, 5 and 6 matches respectively). Level 4 - Cost per ticket = 200,000 gold. Prizes are 10 helix, 300 helix, 2,000 helix and 50,000 helix (for 3, 4, 5 and 6 matches respectively). Level 5 - Cost per ticket = 1,000,000 gold. Prizes are 1 element, 30 elements, 200 elements and 500 elements (for 3, 4, 5 and 6 matches respectively). |
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